Motivence Markets

MOTIVENCE MARKETS - AUGUST 10TH 2022

8/10/2022

Motivence Economic Sentiment Meter: Inflation Decelerated - Fed less stressed?

US inflation decelerated in July

CPI, vs. prior year increased 8.5% which was cooling off from 9.1% from last months YoY increase. All that means is that inflation has decelerated, especially in comps with most estimates. There has been an impact because of the decline in gas and food (in relation to prices), therefore, next step is to see what this means for the September Fed meeting.

Tesla sales to help de-charge twitter fire sale?

Elon Musk has offloaded ~$32B in Tesla shares over this past year to be able to purchase Twitter shares if forced into buying them.

Like chips & not the salty kind?

Micron would invest $40B in US chip manufacturing through 2030 (thanks to CHIP dollars); Qualcomm committed to an additional $4.2B; GlobalFoundries to boost manufacturing by 50% in the next five years.

0 Comments

MOTIVENCE MARKETS - AUGUST 9TH 2022

8/9/2022

0 Comments

Motivence Economic Sentiment Meter: Some bulls are out, but we proceed with a focus in profits.

Have bulls re-entered the field?

S&P 500 increased more than 10% from June lows, whilst evidence suggests the Fed to tighten policy. Essentially, this has caused strategists to call out warning, until more information from the Federal Reserve is released.

Major players continue to cut jobs:

Recent is Alibaba, who cut ~10K jobs in the last three months leading to June. This is a continual trend that we have been seeing from larger companies, shifting focus to profit.

Like chips & not the salty kind?

US semiconductor firms to invest billions as Biden is set to sign a competition bill (includes $52B in domestic R&D). It seems that there is a fiscal push for US semiconductors.

Global Unrest Still Continues:

Pacific tensions are still high, as China threatens business and Taiwan began live fire simulation drills. The death tolls continues to unfortunately rise with the Russia-Ukraine Crisis.

0 Comments

MOTIVENCE MARKETS - AUGUST 5TH 2022

8/5/2022

0 Comments

Motivence Economic Sentiment Meter: Mixed Feeling with Jobs, Feds, and Sentiment

As we really begin to understand the jobs market and trends, data suggests Fed to continue to combat inflation via the jobs report. We now eye jobs and inflation trends keenly, leading up to the September FOMC meeting.

Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobs! So now, The Fed ...

US employers added 528K jobs last month, ahead of most estimates; unemployment rate of 3.5% (lowest in the last five decades). This data is suggesting the FOMC may raise rates by 75bps in September.

Food Price Relief:

UN index of food prices fell for a fourth month after concerns over supplies of grains.

Pacific Pacifists?

China sent warships across the Taiwan Strait's dividing line (a "drill"); Beijing imposed sanctions on Nancy Pelosi

Monkeypox

The Biden administration has declared the current monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency

As of the last market close for the S&P 500 (by Week/s trailing):

One - 36 bps
Two - 463 bps
Three - 730 bps
Four - 855 bps

0 Comments

MOTIVENCE MARKETS - August 4TH 2022

8/4/2022

0 Comments

Motivence Economic Sentiment Meter: Things aren't perfect, but we don't need to panic

Working through what we think is an awkward recessionary time in our economy, we believe it is important to continue focus on fundamentals, look at the job market reports, and continue to search for highly profitable companies in the market (still a focus on profit over growth)

Pacific Pacifists? :

A mix of China firing missiles into the sea as military exercises around Taiwan, a cancellation of a face-to-face meeting with Japan's FM shows well that things are as cool as it was.

Rising Rates Across the Pond:

Bank of England to have a sixth increase since December; U.K. central bank to raise borrowing costs by 50 basis points, from 1.25% to 1.75% - to their highest level since the financial crisis.

Big Walmart is cutting jobs - what does this have in store in to future labor data?

The firm is laying off hundreds of corporate employees, and other big boxes like Target have adjusted their outlook downwards. It is important to focus on where consumer spending and focus continue to come from in the next reporting cycles.

As of the last market close for the S&P 500 (by Week/s trailing):

One - 195 bps
Two - 383 bps
Three - 954 bps
Four - 772 bps

0 Comments

Motivence markets - July 29th 2022

7/29/2022

0 Comments

Motivence Economic Sentiment Meter: We are "ok" but let's proceed with caution

Inflation and general negative growth isn't something where we are raving and running around euphorically about. But folks still have jobs, on the consensus. Generally speaking, this time does require personal finances to face some austerity, as it is more conducive to a savings environment. It's not all daisies and roses, but we are not to panic yet.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic says we are not in a recession but the Fed has to do more with inflation:

“I don’t think the country is in a recession,” he said Friday in an interview on National Public Radio, though he said it was clear that a lot of people were hurting in the current conditions. “Because of that we really need to address the high levels of inflation and get this economy back into a more stable and sustainable situation.”

Inflation continues to increase as monthly consumer spending is only slightly higher:

The personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 1% from a month earlier and was up 6.8% since June 2021. As per many reports, this is one of the largest increases in the last 40 years.

There is still a big airline deal at play:

$3.8 billion Jet Blue and Spirit Airline merger still faces antitrust reviews that analysts say could lead to deal structure changes, and approval timelines.

As of the last market close for the S&P 500 (by Week/s trailing):

One - 1.8%
Two - 7.4%
Three - 4.4%
Four - 6.5%

0 Comments