Every single person and consumer has just endured an unprecedented economic environment, and as a result, a lot of people are still trying to ascertain the effects, while attempting to forecast the future. Candidly, the credit environment and the market that we were in halted sustainable growth for a long time. But then we have to ask ourselves what has made this unprecedented? Should we even put the blame on anyone? And next time, how should we as a society prevent the next bubble, so we do not have to feel the effects of an aftershock?
Logic: In its most basic state, we believe that a bubble is irrational logic in pricing of an asset. And the following is one of our logical path statements of this phenomenon: Premises: 1. Bubbles have always occurred, but we took larger notice of the housing burst because frankly, the whole world felt its consequences. 2. And we are not saying that no one took notice during the tech bubble, but that is our point exactly, we as a society would continue to invest in assets to avoid the regretful feeling of leaving possible returns and opportunities behind. 3. As a result, when a bubble does burst, it is met with unprecedented litigation that deters behavior in one asset class to another, where more stringent policies do not exist. 4. This human instinct, which is embedded in all of us, would cause another outrageous valuation and inflation of an asset price. Conclusions from Premises: 1. What has made this unprecedented was the radical degree of illogical pricing, with a lack of proper risk management, in terms of the mortgages and its securities. 2. And resulting from this was stronger government involvement, through lower leveraging, and more qualitative and quantitative checks, to minimize credit risk. 3 But that would not stop us from another illogical investment of another asset class. And in reality, we always seek to put blame on people, but theoretically, everyone contributed to it. 4, In general, people would be unaware to returns or losses of their new next investment action, leading to the inflation in the valuation. Solution and Takeaway: Therefore, the solution is to take preventive measures next time by letting our logic dictate our actions, when it comes to the allocation of our resources. As much as people try to avoid it, there would always be another bubble. But we should use logic to minimize its aftershocks.
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